← Back to chat
DoD Budget Intelligence

Methodology & Data Guide

J-Books × FPDS · Training & Simulation · PB2013–PB2027
What this tool measures, how confident to be, and what to watch for.

Database scale

1,740
RDT&E Program Elements
PB2013–PB2027
41M
FPDS contract records
all DoD components
154k
R-2 narrative sections
fully embedded & searchable
207k
SBIR awards
Phase I, II & III

Sector scope — current release vs. full platform

The confirmed links, demo conversations, and sample queries are scoped to the ~134 Training & Simulation sector PEs — the programs managed by PEO STRI, NAWCTSD, AFLCMC Simulators, PM TRASYS, and DHA medical simulation.

The underlying database is not T&S-only. All 1,740 RDT&E PEs, 41M contracts, and 154k narrative sections are queryable for any program across any appropriation. Asking about a PE outside the T&S sector will return funding history, R-2 narratives, and FPDS contract search — it just will not have confirmed-link intelligence, because the link-verification pipeline has only been run for T&S so far.

Additional sectors follow the same pipeline. C2, ISR, Aviation systems, Shipbuilding, Cyber, and others can be activated by running the ensemble scorer and AI-assisted verification pass against their PE cohort. The architecture is sector-agnostic; T&S is the first production cut.

PE↔contract links — confidence tiers

Every dollar in RDT&E flows through a Program Element (PE). This tool links PEs to FPDS contract awards using a four-method ensemble scorer followed by AI-assisted verification, with every high-confidence link cross-checked against an expert-reviewed sample. The result is a graded confidence score for each PE↔contract pair.

TierGateMeaningMeasured precisionUse
Confirmed≥ 0.8 Contract description matches R-2 narrative and cost items; verified with high confidence 91.8% real (95% CI: 85–96%) Customer-facing claims, proposal intelligence
Likely0.6–0.8 Plausible match; not fully verified ~51% real Internal analysis only; label explicitly
Ensemble-only< 0.6 Unverified; weak signal ~14% real Do not surface
Gold-set validation: Precision figures come from a stratified expert review of 545 links across 62 sector PEs (July 2026). "Real" = gold confirmed + likely. The tool defaults to the ≥ 0.8 gate for all answers. If an answer loosens to 0.6–0.8, it will say so explicitly.

The confirmed set covers 5,409 links across 485 PEs, spanning $812.4B in total obligated dollars across linked contracts.

What the dollar totals don't mean

The $812B total obligated value of confirmed-linked contracts is not the training & simulation market size. Many links connect RDT&E program elements to platform procurement contracts (ships, aircraft, vehicles) whose descriptions reference the training systems being developed. A $1.3B AMRAAM production lot linked to the PE that funds its simulator is captured in that total.

The RDT&E training & simulation sector runs approximately $9–10.5B/yr in recent budget cycles. That is the relevant market sizing number for BD work.

Known data gaps

Air Force RDT&E — PB2025 and PB2027 missing.
The AF never posted FY2025 RDT&E J-books publicly; PB2027 books may not have been posted at pipeline-build time. All other appropriations (Army, Navy, USMC, DARPA, OSD, Defense Health) are complete for both cycles.

Do not interpret absence of an AF 3600/3620F PE in PB2025 or PB2027 as evidence of termination or restructure. The tool will say "data not available for this cycle" and recommend verification via SAF/FM or the Defense Comptroller portal.

How to read an answer

Appropriations covered

CodeAccountCoverage
2040RDT&E ArmyComplete PB2013–PB2027
1319RDT&E NavyComplete PB2013–PB2027
3600RDT&E Air ForceComplete except PB2025, PB2027
3620FRDT&E Space ForceComplete PB2021–PB2027
0400Defense-Wide (OSD/DARPA/MDA/SOCOM)Complete PB2013–PB2027
0130Defense Health ProgramComplete PB2013–PB2027